Win or bust for Aston Villa. Martin O’Neill believes his side have to win their last three matches to have any chance of finishing in the top four but their neighbours would like nothing more than to hammer a nail in the coffin of Villa’s Champions League dreams. Birmingham, however, have lost their last five meetings with Villa, including a 5-1 drubbing at the home of their rivals two years ago which pushed them closer to relegation. You get the feeling Alex McLeish might mention that result in his team-talk. Stuart James

Venue Villa Park, Sunday noon

Tickets Sold out

Last season n/a

Referee C Foy

This season’s matches 25 Y66, R2, 2.72 cards per game

Odds Aston Villa 8-13 Birmingham 21-4 Draw 14-5

Aston Villa

Subs from Guzan, L Young, Beye, Davies, Sidwell, Heskey, Delfouneso, Reo-Coker, Clark, Salifou, Albrighton

Doubtful Davies (ankle), Dunne (head), Petrov (groin), Warnock (ankle)

Injured Harewood (foot, Aug), Delph (knee, Jan), Bouma (ankle, unknown)

Suspended None

Form guide WWDWLD

Disciplinary record Y55 R2

Leading scorer Agbonlahor 13

Birmingham

Subs from Doyle, Taylor, Phillips, Míchel, Larsson, Parnaby, Tainio, Vignal, Benítez, Carsley, Mutch

Doubtful None

Injured Murphy (hamstring, 1 May), O’Connor (hip, 1 May)

Suspended None

Form guide DLDDLL

Disciplinary record Y64 R1

Leading scorer Jerome 10

Match pointers

• Aston Villa have won their last five Premier League meetings with Birmingham

• Birmingham have won no games this season by more than a single-goal margin

• Aston Villa are unbeaten in seven home games but have drawn six of them

• Birmingham have conceded fewer fouls (405) than any other side in the division

• Stilian Petrov has had more shots without scoring (28) than any other player

• Birmingham have scored three headed goals this season, fewer than any other side

Premier LeagueAston VillaBirmingham Cityguardian.co.uk

Despite buying three defenders in the final days of the transfer window, Martin O’Neill has cobbled together the Premier League’s best back line

Signing three defenders within five days of the transfer window closing and giving them all debuts in the same match should, in theory, be a recipe for disaster. Yet Aston Villa’s clean sheet against Birmingham City last month, when Stephen Warnock, Richard Dunne and James Collins all featured for the first time, proved to be a sign of things to come. Villa visit Wolverhampton Wanderers tomorrow with the best defensive record in the Premier League.

What a turnaround from the second half of last season, when Martin O’Neill’s side surrendered a place in the top four after conceding 24 goals in their final 13 matches. Martin Laursen’s absence during that run was a significant factor and a replacement for the now retired Dane had to be identified in the summer, but O’Neill had bigger plans. The Villa manager recognised the need for a complete overhaul and, at a total cost of £20m, brought in a new back four.

Habib Beye has failed to hold down a regular place since arriving from Newcastle, but otherwise the investment has provided instant returns, with Warnock impressing at left-back and Dunne and Collins looking like a central defensive partnership that have played together for years, rather than weeks. All three excelled against Chelsea last Saturday and it seems incredible to think that little more than a month earlier O’Neill was introducing the trio to each other.

“We had a meeting the night before the Birmingham game, the three new players and the manager, and he told us what he expected of us,” said Warnock, a £7m signing from Blackburn. “It was just a general chat about things and it seems to have gone from there. It’s been about getting used to each other on the training pitch and understanding each other. We had a hiccup against Blackburn, where we didn’t do too well, but, on the whole, I think we’ve gelled quite well.”

O’Neill acknowledges he was taking a gamble by throwing the three in at the same time but he also points out “the risk was minimised by the fact that they have all played in the Premier League”. Nevertheless, the Villa manager cannot have imagined Dunne and Collins would also prove to be such a handful in the opposition penalty area. Both scored in the win over Chelsea, with Dunne having grabbed the opening goal against Manchester City in the previous match.

“I think the experience of Dunney has helped massively,” added Warnock. “He’s a calm head when we’re under the cosh and having a tough time. And James Collins has been fantastic as well. There’s a great mix. James is probably a little bit more classy on the ball and Dunney is no nonsense and it seems to blend so well. They’re tough lads. And you can see the way they defend that it means a lot to them not to concede. They’re both very strong and good in the air.”

That solid backbone was missing during the final three months of last season, when Curtis Davies’s form suffered alongside the erratic Zat Knight. The full-back positions were also problematic, with Luke Young, who has yet to feature this season, forced to switch from the right to the left after O’Neill lost faith with Nicky Shorey. Carlos Cuéllar was another square peg in a round hole, although the centre-half has appeared more comfortable in the right-back role this season.

The Spaniard has been a regular member of a back line that has conceded seven goals in eight matches, though O’Neill believes it is not only Brad Friedel and the quartet in front of him that deserve praise for that statistic. “I think the [defensive] players, including the goalkeeper, would be the first ones to admit that the help they get from players in front of them has been fantastic,” said O’Neill. “The ground James Milner covered against Chelsea was quite phenomenal.”

It is that work ethic, allied to the new foundations O’Neill has laid in defence to complement the threat the Villa manager has at the other end of the pitch, that have prompted the squad to genuinely believe they can finish, and not just sample life, in the top four this season. “When you look around the changing room, you realise how much quality there is in the squad and that you can go to places and take teams on and beat them,” said Warnock. “I don’t think we fear anyone.”

Aston VillaMartin O’NeillPremier LeagueStuart Jamesguardian.co.uk